Why Curiosity Beats Certainty: A New Strategy for Uncertain Times

BEYOND THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL

Economic turbulence, climate disruption, technological acceleration, and geopolitical tension—when volatility becomes the norm, our instinct is to seek stability. In the face of complexity, we aim for the familiar. We tend to fall back on what feels certain and within our control, hoping it will keep the ground steady beneath us.

This reaction offers comfort. Certainty makes decision-making easier, strengthens our sense of identity, and creates a strong illusion of control. But it’s not just a modern preference—it’s an ancient survival tool. Our brains evolved to focus on immediate threats and cut through uncertainty. Pattern recognition and quick actions were once vital for survival.

Today, the same neurological wiring can deceive us. In complex, fast-changing systems, our instinct to depend on familiar strategies might limit our perspective. We cling to old frameworks even when the situation requires new thinking. What once helped us survive now risks keeping us stuck, unable—or unwilling—to adapt.

Organisational responses to uncertainty often follow a predictable routine: forecast more accurately, act quicker, and tighten control. But these approaches, although reassuring, are no longer sufficient. They tackle symptoms, not root causes. In today’s environment, success may rely not on reducing uncertainty but on exploring it—by asking better questions before rushing to solutions.

This shift—from problem-solving to problem-finding—requires a more curious mindset. It also calls for us to re-engineer our organisational systems to prioritise curiosity as a vital strategic asset.

CONCEPT DEFINITION – CURIOSITY AS A STRATEGIC COMPETENCY

Curiosity is more than just a personal trait; it’s a systemic capability. On an individual level, curiosity broadens perception and fuels learning. For organisations, it fosters responsiveness, adaptability, and innovation. It is how we identify new problems worth solving and how we future-proof our decisions.

Rather than seeing curiosity as a simple skill, we should recognise it as a core element embedded in culture, systems, leadership practices, and learning frameworks. Especially in Asia-Pacific markets where volatility and change are common, integrating curiosity into business strategy has become vital. It’s a necessity.

MULTI-PERSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

To fully understand how curiosity functions as a strategic asset, it is necessary to examine it from multiple perspectives. Each sheds light on different pressures, constraints, and opportunities for fostering curiosity on a larger scale.

1. TECHNOLOGICAL LENS – DISRUPTION DEMANDS DISCOVERY

Digital transformation across the APAC region has surpassed many traditional organisational planning models. AI, automation, and platform changes are reshaping industries faster than they can be mapped. When answers become outdated before implementation, the strategic edge goes to those who ask better questions—sooner.

Platforms like Grab, Shopee, and Canva did not succeed solely through predictive certainty but rather through iterative learning and user-focused experimentation. Their teams practised “discovery over delivery”—using curiosity at every stage of product design, not just during strategy formulation.

In practical terms, this means encouraging engineering curiosity within digital teams, including hypothesis-driven sprints, user shadowing, and ‘what-if’ analysis, which are part of agile routines. Technology doesn’t eliminate uncertainty— it magnifies the effects of not exploring it.

2. ECONOMIC/BUSINESS LENS – CERTAINTY BIAS IN STRATEGIC PLANNING

In rapidly changing markets like Indonesia or Vietnam, five-year plans can become outdated within 18 months. Yet many companies cling to rigid forecasts, driven by the illusion of control. This is the “certainty bias”—a psychological preference for familiar frameworks, even when evidence indicates they are no longer suitable.

Behavioural economics supports this idea. Threats limit our cognitive capacity (Staw, Sandelands, & Dutton, 1981), making us revert to previous strategies even when they are no longer suitable. In contrast, curiosity reactivates our learning brain. Research shows that curiosity improves memory, creativity, and problem-solving by engaging the brain’s reward system and decreasing the impact of fear (Gruber, Gelman, & Ranganath, 2014).

In business terms, this means gaining a competitive edge. Teams that adopt a learning mindset—exploring scenarios, questioning assumptions, and engaging different perspectives—respond more quickly and effectively to emerging risks and opportunities.

3. CULTURAL/SOCIAL LENS – THE ROLE OF CURIOSITY IN COLLECTIVE LEARNING

Curiosity is not just a personal trait; it is a social phenomenon. Research indicates that when leaders show curiosity, it spreads to others (Kashdan & Silvia, 2009). A single person’s naive question can shift an entire team’s dynamic from mere performance to genuine exploration.

In culturally diverse APAC settings, where hierarchy and saving face often limit open discussion, the leader’s role is crucial. Leaders who say “I don’t know, let’s find out together” foster psychological safety. They transform meetings from reporting sessions into collaborative learning spaces.

Furthermore, diverse teams work best when they also encourage question diversity—not just identity diversity (Page, 2007). That includes including voices that notice anomalies, challenge orthodoxy, and dare to ask, “What if we’re solving the wrong problem?”

4. ETHICAL/REGULATORY LENS – NAVIGATING AMBIGUITY RESPONSIBLY

From data ethics to sustainability and AI governance, businesses today face complex ethical challenges. There are no straightforward solutions—only evolving questions. Curiosity becomes an ethical habit: the humility to listen, the courage to question, and the discipline to learn.

Curiosity enables organisations to anticipate stakeholder concerns instead of just reacting to them. It shifts compliance from simply ticking boxes to gaining a real understanding, moving from a reactive to a proactive stance. In this way, curiosity becomes not only a mental skill but also a form of accountability.

STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS – DESIGNING FOR PROBLEM-FINDING

Turning curiosity into strategy requires more than just a mindset—it’s about implementing structural change. These organisational shifts embed curiosity into daily operations, making problem-finding not just possible but expected.

Reframe Performance Reviews: by including “learning achieved” alongside deliverables. Value thoughtful failure, not just perfect execution.

Design Curious Meetings: Introduce question rounds, assumption audits, and rotating perspectives to foster a culture of curiosity. Allocate time for exploration—not just status updates.

Shift Leadership Habits: Encourage leaders to openly demonstrate curiosity. Ask questions aloud. Admit uncertainty. Reflect visibly.

Develop Temporal Curiosity: Encourage teams to think across different time horizons: What needs to be decided now? What experiments can we conduct? What signals should we monitor for the future?

Promote Post-Expertise Identity: Support professionals in releasing outdated expertise. Encourage cross-functional immersion, reverse mentoring, and beginner’s mind practices.

HABITS OF CURIOSITY-LED LEADERS IN ASIA

Curiosity-led leadership is gaining momentum across Asia, especially in organisations adapting to rapid technological, demographic, and regulatory shifts. These leaders don’t just accept uncertainty—they turn it into action. Their habits shape the cultural blueprint for teams focused on learning.

1. THEY NORMALISE NOT KNOWING

In hierarchical cultures common in Asia, admitting uncertainty can be viewed as a weakness. Curious leaders challenge this by openly modelling “I don’t know—let’s find out.” This shifts organisational norms from performance to discovery.

2. THEY ASK CATALYTIC QUESTIONS

Rather than defaulting to status updates, they begin meetings with questions like “What surprised you this week?” or “What assumptions are we making?” These questions foster reflection and uncover hidden risks and opportunities.

3. THEY ESTABLISH ‘LEARNING ZONES’

At companies like DBS Bank in Singapore, leaders allocate space for innovation through labs and “safe to fail” pilots. These are not just side projects—they are key to testing strategy.

4. THEY PRACTICE REVERSE MENTORING

From tech founders in Indonesia to policy leaders in Vietnam, many are encouraging younger or cross-functional staff to challenge their thinking. This flattens authority and introduces diverse perspectives to strategic decisions.

5. THEY HOLD STRATEGIC CURIOSITY REVIEWS

Instead of quarterly reviews that focus only on results, these leaders ask: What did we learn? What might we rethink? What blind spots have emerged? Over time, this helps cultivate a culture of reflective agility.

Curiosity-led leadership isn’t gentle—it’s sharp. In Asia’s fast-changing landscape, these leaders aren’t just managing change; they’re adapting quicker than it happens.

CURIOSITY AS EVOLUTION, NOT DISRUPTION

In a world obsessed with innovation, the boldest step might be to ask older, deeper questions. What do we truly not understand? Which questions are we avoiding? What assumptions feel too sacred to challenge?

The shift from problem-solving to problem-finding isn’t a rejection of skill—it’s a renewal. The future belongs to those who can unlearn effortlessly, ask smarter questions, and see uncertainty not as a threat but as a chance for discovery.

In uncertain times, curiosity isn’t just helpful—it’s crucial.


References (APA Style)

  • Bilalic, M., McLeod, P., & Gobet, F. (2008). Why good thoughts block better ones: The mechanism of the pernicious Einstellung (set) effect. Cognition, 108(3), 652–661.
  • Gruber, M. J., Gelman, B. D., & Ranganath, C. (2014). States of curiosity modulate hippocampus-dependent learning via the dopaminergic circuit. Neuron, 84(2), 486–496.
  • Kashdan, T. B., & Silvia, P. J. (2009). Curiosity and interest: The benefits of thriving on novelty and challenge. In S. J. Lopez & C. R. Snyder (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Positive Psychology (pp. 367–374). Oxford University Press.
  • Page, S. E. (2007). The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton University Press.
  • Staw, B. M., Sandelands, L. E., & Dutton, J. E. (1981). Threat-rigidity effects in organisational behaviour: A multilevel analysis. Administrative Science Quarterly, 26(4), 501–524.
  • Gino, F. (2018). Rebel Talent: Why It Pays to Break the Rules at Work and in Life. Dey Street Books.